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By Dr. Terry Lacey, Development Economist
Growing Muslim social groups, with their companies and Small and Medium Enterprises, are leading the modernization of the Muslim world. They are the only ones who can win the battle for progress.
It is the coincidence of underdevelopment with economic and social backwardness and poor education that gives the greatest advantage to fundamentalist extremists, gangsters and warlords, but the West must desist from tactics that make such groups stronger.
It is sadly true that so far this battle has brought Islam itself into disrepute, arousing Islamophobia in the West and globally, and a wave of prejudice against Muslims
In the end Bin Laden and the fundamentalists cannot hijack Islam. They do not represent the majority. By the same token the West cannot hijack the saving of Islam. That is a task for Muslims.
Muslim leaders, their global position reinforced economically and politically by the emergence of a more equitable New Economic Order, now have to use their increased economic leverage to persuade the West to change track.
The end of the Bush presidency and the arrival of President Obama provide the opportunity to do this. But it is an opportunity that could easily be lost if the U.S is overwhelmed by domestic pressures and if the new US foreign policy team fails to break the Bush mould.
The war in Afghanistan can easily be lost there, but it cannot be won in Afghanistan alone.
The focus is moving from the Middle East to Asia. The terrorist target is moving more squarely against the one thing that can marginalize and defeat them – economic success. The Mumbai attacks emphasized this, as well as trying to drive a wedge between India and Pakistan.
Despite many unresolved contradictions, fundamentalist extremists are being squeezed out of the Middle East where most countries have tightened security and are increasingly battened down against them.
Once the main US and British forces leave Iraq the foreign extremists still there lose their rationale. Their time in Iraq is running out.
Pakistan is now the weakest link in the Muslim chain.
It is the base for Al Qaeda and a secure haven for the Afghan Taliban. It is developing an insurgency of its own led by a coalition of the Pakistan Taliban, tribal groups and political elements opposed to the new government. This insurgency and terrorism are spilling over into India. There is the risk it will spread into Central and Southern Asia.
Moreover Pakistan has an economic crisis and had to bring in the IMF (one of the few Muslim countries in this position). Pakistan has a weak democracy and a new government trying to establish its leadership.
A large scale internal guerilla war will not solve these problems. It would make them worse.
The wind of change is blowing throughout the Muslim world, especially in the North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
A wave of petrol dollar liquidity has bolstered the Gulf States, strengthening new economic and investment links with the Middle East countries, Asia and Europe.
But those who politically manipulate Islam and this multiplicity of separatist, criminal and tribal interests seem to understand what the wind of change means for them. It means loss of power and money. It means the end. They must try to stop or delay the new economic developments.
However, those who use Islamic fundamentalism as a mercantile trade label, and who make coalitions with fundamentalists when it suits them, will have no interest to do so if they can no longer hold onto local power or make money that way.
So the development strategy deployed must focus on breaking these links and creating alternative opportunities for their followers, so that the sons and daughters of gangsters and warlords will have other options and help to supplant their parents. The fundamentalist attempt at theocratic revolution must be defeated by their children. Better prospects. More carrots, Less sticks.
The coming battle for the hearts and minds of Muslims and the economic and political future of Muslim countries will be lost or won in Pakistan. Neither the Muslim world nor the West can afford that this battle is lost in a state with a pivotal geo-political position and possessing nuclear weapons.
Muslim countries and the West should focus hard on how to support and help Pakistan before it is too late.
The majority of Pakistanis have already voted for change. Now they need the material means and support to achieve it, and help to strengthen their leadership, capacity and civil society.
